Estimating in a weak matrix environment

Still on the theme of drug development projects, the current challenge is to bridge the gap. This is the gap between the high level objective of a firm - and very challenging - completion date and the ability of many highly utilised functional groups to deliver. First pass estimates are in the right ball park - but without meeting the target date and without taking account of risk.

The one challenge is now two (slightly) smaller challenges - to improve the delivery processes to reduce the duration estimates - and to formulate the message for executives about risks associated with the completion date. Microsoft Project's PERT analysis function is providing a good basis for communication with the functional groups about process improvement. We are asking them to provide classic Optimistic, Most Likely and Pessimistic estimates for the various deliverables - and to list the assumptions or conditions for each. This gives us the starting point for both the risk register and areas where process improvement would be most feasible and give the greatest contribution.