Project Forecasting: More Lessons from Driving

A while ago, I entered a post about the importance of staying tuned in, drawing an analogy to driving. Well, another driving analogy had occured to me, this time about the need to focus on remaining time.

Let's put it this way. If you're driving from Philadelphia to New York City and you're at the entrance to the New Jersey Turnpike, what percent complete are you on your trip?

Some of you may guess certain percentages based on distance, but that's as foolish as basing project percent complete on the percent of budget or time that's been spent, without regard for work accomplished.

The quick answer is: Who cares what percent complete we are? What we really should be concerned with is how much time is left, assuming we care about what time we arrive to begin with.

But let's say that we DO care (i.e. schedule is a priority for us, as opposed to some other success factor). How can we measure whether we'll be there on time?

Simply using a percent complete tells us nothing. It's too subjective. What we need to know how much time is remaining. And that will depend on how fast you're going, how many miles are left, what barriers may arise (i.e. road closings, flat tires, etc.), how many stops you make, and a number of other variables. It's no different for projects.

For project schedule control, capturing percent complete is too theoretical, so that's not of much use to us. And capturing time spent tells us very little, except perhaps how long it took us to do prior work, which may not be an accurate indicator of future work. Besides, we can probably determine future work estimates more accurately through expert opinion and/or statistical sampling (combined with good planning).

Of course, there's no harm in entering time spent as long as people are disciplined to always include time remaining. Then a percent-complete can be calculated based on that. But the percent-complete itself is not a leading indicator, so is still of questionable value.

If we focus instead on time remaining at the task level, and combine that with barrier removal, risk planning, and regular reforecasts, we'd have much better control over whether we "arrive on time."

We can improve our ability to estimate in the future by capturing lessons learned, doing spot checks, and using the information to create project schedule templates and checklists, so future projects can avoid running over the same potholes.

Some may say, "Oh, we still need the percent-complete for Earned Value calculations."

Do we really? By putting a dollar amount to the time remaining, we can solve the same problem in a simpler fashion, answering the question: How much is it going to cost us to complete this project and what's our estimated time to arrival?

Just some food for thought. See my followup post on Project Forecasting and Uncertainty as well.

Changing that Culture

Looking further at the Critical Success Factors for Project Management within an organisation, Cultural Change Management looms large. This is sometimes treated as a catch-all excuse or reason for every perceived barrier to deploying project management methods. But there are some specific characteristics that makes cultural change a practical proposition. Each of the following can be addressed:

• Appreciation of the value of Project Management in execution of projects
  This is about belief in the outcome on the part of all stakeholders. I remember an occasion when a junior manager in a user department was 'looking forward to the end of the project so that he could get back to his regular work.' The outcome of a project should be change!
  This is related to the leadership factor. Strategic leadership will promote and reinforce the benefits to the organisation of the change.
• Acceptance and embrace of work methods based on a project management approach
  This is more detailed than the first bullet. It relates to applying the new methods. Not just accepting the concept but actually doing the work in the new way.
  This is related to training in the use of the tools and methods.
• Willingness to break down barriers to changes in working methods
  This item recognises that all the participants have a role to play in the success of the processes. Typically new processes will not be perfect. There will need to be some adaptation to the odd unanticipated circumstances. These will require a measure of good will and flexibility.
  This is related to continuing communication for all stakeholders.

This example from Washington state's Department of Social and Health Services' ProviderOne Project Office/Organization includes a specifically identified Business and Cultural Change Manager.

Another example - the State of Delaware Department of Technology and Innovation includes Change Management Team involvement in all major DTI projects.

The Enemy of Simplicity: The Thud Factor

We've all heard about the benefits of simplicity, whether in our processes, our communication, or in our objectives. In all its forms, simplicity is a way to reduce confusion, boost morale, and encourage speed and flexibility. In fact, simplicity, speed, and flexibility are three of the "Six Winning Principles" I wrote about in Napoleon on Project Management (the other three being exactitude, character, and moral force).

But there's a lurking enemy of simplicity, and it often goes unnoticed. It can be found in the motives of individuals creating the processes, communications, or objectives. I'm talking about job protection. I don't mean the blatant kind that results from grandiose thinking, egotism or turf wars. It's much more subtle than that.

It can happen if an individual or department is placed in charge of creating a process or devising a plan. Or it can happen if a consulting company is brought in to do a study or offer advice. Common sense says that these people, while not necessarily devious, will hesitate to come up with anything too simple, lest they feel they're not doing their job. The result is often something that is way more detailed, complex, and expensive than it needs to be.

What can we do about it? We need to be very aware of motives and rewards, and make sure we don't consiously or unconciously reward people for complexity. We need to send a message that the shortest, simplest way to meet the goal wins (even offering incentives if possible). This can avoid what many consultants jokingly refer to as "the thud factor"----the customer's perception of the value of the service as judged by how much of a noise the report makes when it's dropped on their desk.

Whether it's a consulting company, a PMO, an internal process center, or a project team, we need to find a way to head off the thud factor and insure simplicity. We can do this by understanding motives; sending the right message; insisting on brief, simple reports; and creating the right reward system.

Innovation Obstacles: Resistance, Time

Pulse-point survey on innovation shows cultural resistance and lack of time as barriers to innovation. Langdon Morris is author of Permanent Innovation, which is the process of innovating continuously, by developing an organizational culture that embraces innovation as a core value. ...

... "Both topics are chronic problems in organizations today, and both are significant red flags that indicate unhealthy situations. If your organization is characterized by resistance to change or you don't feel you have enough time for innovation then it may be time for a serious assessment of your organization's culture, and perhaps some remedial work to shift more of your focus toward something other than short term concerns." ...

Via Innovation Labs: Results of the Permanent Innovation Survey (PDF) ...

Are Women Happy Under The Glass Ceiling?

About 70% of women and 57% of men believe an invisible barrier--a glass ceiling--prevents women from getting ahead in business, according to a study of 1,200 executives in eight countries, including the U.S., Australia, Austria and the Philippines. Consulting firm Accenture (nyse: ACN - news - people ) released the study on Wednesday in conjunction with International Women's Day.

But if women are unhappy about making 77 cents for every dollar earned by a man, it's not reflected in Accenture's statistics. Globally, the same percentage of men and women--58%--felt they were fairly compensated. In the U.S., 67% of men were happy with their salaries, compared with 60% of women. But American women were almost as satisfied as men with the professional levels they had achieved.

One reason why women aren't complaining about the pay gap: They've decided to work for themselves. The number of women-owned firms grew 17% between 1997 and 2004, according to the Center for Women's Business Research, while the total number of firms rose only 9%.

Read more at: Are Women Happy Under The Glass Ceiling? - Forbes.com

SAP CRM Projects: Barriers Acknowledged by SAP ...

In this article, SAP leader shares lessons-learned with SAP CRM implementation: the closer you get to the customer, the more different the requirements ... CRM software needs flexibility at the customer interface ... enterprise offerings are not flexible ... without early wins in the sales force and front-office, the workforce satisfies its requirements with other tools. ...

... "For many SAP customers, CRM adoption was scheduled in the second and third phases of an ERP project and by that time, customers were either worn out or not willing to undergo system disruptions ... " ...

SAP CRM Pojects: Barriers Acknowledged by SAP: Via SearchSAP: SAP acknowledges barrier to mySAP CRM implementations